2012 Aon's Political Risk Map: 2 upgrades and 3 downgrades for the CEE&CIS countries

14 February 2012 — Daniela GHETU
In the CEE and CIS regions, Republic of Moldova and Ukraine's political risk lowered, while Azerbaijan, Belarus, Croatia are bearing a higher political risk as compared to 2011, according the 2012 Aon Political Risk Map. Although EU and OECD member states were not rated in the 2012 edition of the map, Romania and Bulgaria were still taken into consideration and assigned a Low-Risk rate.

The risk factor considered for both these countries is the supply chain disruption, while for Bulgaria legal and regulatory risk was also considered as significant. As compared to the 2011 edition of the map, Bulgaria's profile didn't change, while the Romania's one slightly improved, as AON has removed the political violence risk assigned in the previous year. Croatia's downgrade was determined by the country's exposure to the sovereign non-payment risk.

Except for Russia and Moldova, which were assigned a Medium Risk rating, all the CIS countries are considered as bearing an above average political risk. Belarus is the single country in the region with a Very High risk rating, as the map's authors consider it is exposed to all the six risk considered in the analysis.




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About the 2012 Aon Political Risk Map

Aon measured political risk in 167 countries and territories to assess the risk level of exchange transfer, sovereign non-payment, political interference, supply chain disruption, legal and regulatory, and political violence. Each country is rated as Low, Medium-Low, Medium, Medium-High, High or Very High. European Union and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development member countries are not rated in the 2012 map.

Country ratings reflect a combination of analysis by Aon Risk Solutions, Oxford Analytica, a global analysis and advisory firm, and the opinions of 26 Lloyd's syndicates and corporate insurers actively writing political risk insurance.

Upgrades (where the overall country or territory risk is rated lower than the previous year)
Three upgrades: Moldova, Ukraine, Uruguay

Downgrades (where the overall country or territory risk is rated higher than the previous year)
21 downgrades: Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Belarus, Colombia, Croatia, Egypt, Falkland Islands, Gabon, Guatemala, Guinea Bissau, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Swaziland, Syria, Thailand, Tunisia, Uganda, Vietnam, Western Sahara

Each country on the map is rated according to the different types of risks it faces, and these risks are indicated by the following icons:

Exchange Transfer: The risk of being unable to make hard currency payments as a result of the imposition of local currency controls. 71 countries have this risk icon, including Bolivia, Kenya, Swaziland, Pakistan and Turkmenistan.

Legal and Regulatory: The risk of financial or reputational loss as a result of difficulties in complying with a host country's laws, regulations or codes. 104 countries have this risk icon, making it the most common risk on the map. Countries with this risk icon include Belarus, Kazakhstan, Somalia, Thailand and Yemen.

Political Interference: The risk of host government intervention in the economy or other policy areas that negatively affect overseas business interests; e.g., nationalization and expropriation. 92 countries and territories have this risk icon, including five new entrants for 2012: Egypt, Gambia, Libya, Peru and Western Sahara.

Political Violence: The risk of strikes, riots, civil commotions, sabotage, terrorism, malicious damage, war, civil war, rebellion, revolution, insurrection, hostile act by a belligerent power, mutiny or coup d'etat. 81 countries have this risk icon, including Bahrain, Libya, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Turkmenistan.

Sovereign Non-payment: The risk of failure of a foreign government or government entity to honor its obligations in connection with loans or other financial commitments. 85 countries have this risk icon in 2012, including Croatia, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Nigeria and Vietnam.

Supply Chain Disruption: The risk of disruption to the flow of goods and/or services into or out of a country as a result of political, social, economic or environmental instability. This is the least common risk icon with 61 countries, including Guinea Conakry, Papua New Guinea, Syria, Tuvalu and Vanuatu.

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