The outlook on Poland's banking system has been changed to negative from stable, reflecting the expectation that the banks' operating environment will deteriorate, said Moody's Investors Service in a Banking System Outlook published on November 15th. Both the NBP Central Bank's President, Marek BELKA and the head of KNF, Poland's financial market regulator, Andrzej JAKUBIAK, called Moody's assesment as "astonishing" and "surprising", and said that there is "no justification for the decision in the condition of the financial sector in Poland" other than the situation of the banking system in Europe.
The medium-to longer-term outlook for banking sector growth remains very favourable in at least six CEE markets, a group that includes some of the region's largest economies: Russia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia and Albania are likely to remain high growth markets in which nominal loan and asset growth is likely to clearly outpace nominal GDP growth going forward. It is worth noting that these six markets represent 80% of total banking sector assets in CEE, says Raiffeisen's Bank analysts in the most recebt edition of the CEE Banking Sector Report.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said on Nov.7th that it raised its long- and short-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Kazakhstan to 'BBB+/A-2' from 'BBB/A-3'. The agency affirmed the local currency ratings at 'BBB+/A-2'. The outlook is stable. At the same time, S&P's affirmed the 'KzAAA' national scale rating on Kazakhstan. The 'BBB+' transfer and convertibility assessment remains unchanged.
Contrary to what many commentators are predicting, Italian insurers may not be able to pass on most of the losses incurred from an unlikely default of Italian government debt, FitchRating says.
Hungary's government decided on November 9th to lower its initial economic growth forecast for 2012, of 1.5%, to 0.9%. According to Hungarian financial press, the downward adjustment means that previously announced fiscal adjustment measures will need an additional HUF 250 billion package in order to meet the deficit target. This would total an adjustment of about HUF 1,600 billion.
The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey (CEE) has increased by 13.0 points in October 2011 for the first time in the last five months. The indicator has climbed up to the minus 25.0 points mark. Economic Expectations for the Eurozone have also increased by 18.3 points to a level of minus 49.1 points. The economic sentiment indicator for the CEE region and further financial market data have been surveyed monthly by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, with the support of Erste Group Bank, Vienna, since 2007.
"The euro has lost some of its in attractiveness and Poland is in no rush to enter the euro-zone", governor of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) Marek BELKA stated recently, on the occasion of the NBP's Conference.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said on October 20th that it lowered its long and short-term sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Slovenia to 'AA-/A-1+' from 'AA/A-1+'. The transfer & convertibility (T&C) assessment for Slovenia remains unchanged at 'AAA'. The outlook is stable.
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Real GDP in the OECD area grew by 0.3% in the second quarter of 2011. Gross fixed investment was the main contributor, adding 0.2 percentage point to overall growth. The contribution from private consumption continued to slow in the second quarter of 2011. At 0.1 percentage point the contribution from private consumption fell to its lowest level since the second quarter of 2009. The negative contribution from net exports reduced overall GDP growth by 0.1 percentage point.
Lithuanian economy has staged an impressive recovery, based on a supportive global environment and determined policy adjustment, is the main finding of the Concluding Statement afetr the IMF Staff recent visit in Vilnius. After contracting sharply in 2008-09, economic activity grew by 1½ percent in 2010 and a robust 6¼ percent in the first half of 2011. The export-led recovery broadened to domestic demand and employment growth accelerated. The recovery reflected both the global upturn and strong policy action, including sizeable fiscal consolidation, the maintenance of confidence in the banking system, and significant wage adjustment that underpinned gains in competitiveness.
Greek the recession will be deeper than was anticipated in June and a recovery is now expected only from 2013 onwards, concludes the final document released after the fifth joint review mission carried out by he European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB), and International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Greece. There is no evidence yet of improvement in investor sentiment and the related increase in investments, in part because the reform momentum has not gained the critical mass necessary to begin transforming the investment climate.
The increasing concern about the major European financial entities' exposure to fiscally troubled governments in the region already determined some of this big players to unveil their changing investment policies aiming to strongly reduce the "bad" governmental bonds. Thus, ING and Lloyd's announced this week their retreat from the risky peripheral EU markets' debt.